NFL Gambling StrategyThe first method of football handicapping is called primary analysis. This football handicapping method is the most basic and logical. This football handicapping strategy compares the strength and weakness of teams facing each other. In analyzing two opposing teams, the bettor looks for a situation where one team's strength is going against the other team's weakness. The key to this football handicapping method is that the strength and weakness that is being compared must be in an area of the game that directly competes against each other. For example, the Dallas Cowboys have a terrible rushing defense. Their opponent, the San Francisco 49ers, runs the ball well. It can be clearly seen that San Francisco has the advantage over the 'Boys. The only problem with this kind of football handicapping theory is that the odds makers are aware that the bettors know of these mismatches. Since the odds makers know this, they will adjust the line accordingly, making the 49ers heavy favorites. The second method is called value football handicapping. In this method you are looking for two situations: 1. In your opinion, the odds maker has given a team too many points. You see, gamblers who use the value football handicapping method make their own lines for each game. When they find a difference between their line and the sportsbook's line, they try to capitalize on the opportunity. Other sports bettors who use this football handicapping method wait for the lines to move. Lines moving? Yes. Lines are released for the NFL on Sunday night, more than one week before the scheduled kick-off, which allows plenty of time for the point spreads to change. Although this football handicapping method may seem to be very profitable on the surface, in reality this football handicapping strategy doesn't win much. Lines rarely move enough to make much of a difference. Many studies have been done and in general they conclude that there is no real advantage in going with a line move once it has changed. |
